Thadd Eldredge's Narrative

Weather Forecast

Thadd Eldredge Analysis

The map is a closer look at the remainder of the North Village. I have turned on some lines that make things confusing, but show a better picture of the beach. I am still basing my analysis on the high water locations.

The point has migrated northward a distance of about 90 feet in the past two weeks at a rate of about 6.9 feet per day. The overall since July of last year is 6.2 feet per day.

You may also notice that I removed the camp owner information and boundaries. I did add a thin red line with three starbursts on it. The red line represents an extension of the approximate path of migration of the point. The three starbursts are the locations of some Christmas trees I planted 100 feet apart along this line. The trees should be visible from the shore. Given the shape of the bay side of the beach, I would assume the point will start to migrate more to the west.

Point Migration:

I was reviewing the location of the point relative to the original location of approximate high water. When the breach was younger, the location of the point was east of the original high water mark. More recently, the location of the point has just about coincided with the original high water mark. I am going to give a guess that the point migration will continue along the bay side high water mark, but of course, the low point in the beach (which is the current middle trail) will likely play a role in the east /west location of the point. If the rate of migration continues at an average of about six feet per day, the point will be more or less at the third tree I planted in a little over a month.

I have been looking at the shape of the curve from all of my locations. The current trend has been an immediate curve from the point that is more or less parallel to the most recent Scott driveway (the one in white with the cul-de-sac). Should the migration continue northwards at the same rate, in about a month, we should see the edge of the beach immediately south of the Scott driveway. Any guesses when Summer Beach will start in this year? This summer will be interesting and hopefully the Summer Beach will reverse the point migration.

Thadd

For a larger PDF of the above map, click here.